2018 Atlanta Braves Preview Part 1 - Starting pitching

Is this the most boring offseason of all time? Yes, well I guess unless your a Yankees or a Brewers fan. God forbid your one of the 16 Marlins fans in the world, if you are just know I feel for you. But alas Winter is releasing it's cruel grasp on the world and we are only 2 weeks out from Pitchers and Catchers reporting! Of course that immediately starts the all too long Spring Training schedule but hey at least there's no WBC this year so it'll be 5 painful weeks until Opening Day instead of 6!

The Braves are loaded with young major league ready talent and that should keep the veteran retreads to a minimum this year. Gone are the Adonis Garcias, Erick Aybars, Bartolo Colons and Jonny Gomes' of the world. Enter Ozzie Albies, Luiz Gohara, Ronald Acuna (maybe not just yet, but soon) and Max Fried amongst other top prospects ready to showcase their talents in the Show.

With so many free agents still standing in the unemployment line and the Braves payroll hovering right around $100 million one or two signings could drastically change this outlook but I believe FanGraphs' ZIPs projections had Atlanta as a 79 win team. Not bad but not going to catch the Nats either. Let's take  a look at who will lead us to a glorious 80-ish win season! Playing the Marlins, Phillies and Mets 57 times should help!

ROTATION

Julio Teheran - The Braves ace and former top prospect has suffered something akin to prospect fatigue at the big league level. Braves fans are a fickle bunch and if they see the words "Number One Prospect" they expect superstar or bust and while a superstar Julio is not he's a 2 x All Star who recently passed Steve Avery in career bWAR. I know, I know Avery had shoulder issues and never got a chance to live up to his potential but the point is Teheran is better than Braves fans would have you believe despite the fact he'll probably never be a true ace. For his contract however a number 2/3 pitcher is just fine. The guy has a career 3.59 ERA (shoot me) and is going to give you a solid start every 5 days.



Mike Foltynewicz - Another former top prospect Folty as he's known around these parts was actually the Braves most valuable pitcher last season recording 1.8 fWAR. Steamer has him projected at 1.6 this year which seems about right, the guy has all the talent in the world as he runs it up to the upper 90s with ease he just has to put it all together. Everyone and their mother wants to ship him to the bullpen to be the "closer" but he's most valuable as a starter and that's where he'll stay for the time being. This will be his fourth season with the Braves, his 3rd as a full time starter so maybe he can turn the corner.

Brandon McCarthy - He would've been the Braves best pitcher last year if he were on the team producing 2.4 fWAR. He came over in the MASH unit trade with Kazmir for Kemp and others and should slot in the 2nd or 3rd slot in the rotation.

Sean Newcomb - A cold weather arm from Baaaahston, Newk will be entering his 2nd MLB season and seems to have a leg up on the competition for a rotation spot having spun exactly 100 inning last year. Like Folty he has all the stuff in the world but will strike out the side one inning then walk the bases loaded the next. Frustrating stuff but the fact is the guy has only pitched 450 professional innings and like I said was a cold weather arm. Which is why the Braves are still so high on him, I ran into now MLB pitching coach Chuck Hernandez in 2016 when he was the Braves roving minor league pitching coordinator at a backfield game in Lakeland and he was nice enough to answer a bunch of my stupid questions and we chatted for about 5 or 10 minutes about all the studs the Braves had in the minors at the time, out of all them he seemed most excited about Newcomb because of the raw potential. I am really high on the kid and am looking forward to what he does with a full season at the big league level.


This is where it gets tricky.. Luiz Gohara seems to have the inside track for the 5th starter spot after coming up late last year and showing off his ridiculous stuff, he was the hardest throwing LH SP in the major leagues last season after all but he's just 21 and has a stable of horses right on his tail for that very same spot.

Luiz Gohara - CC Sabathia Jr. makes 99 look easy as can be, and while he "only" has 2 pitches from talking to him after his Florida State League debut last season he actually throws 3 different versions of his slider according to the man himself. A hard slider, a softer version of it and a slurvy version depending on the batter and situation. The guy has barely over a 100 innings above A ball and could probably benefit from some time in Triple A if he were to struggle in Spring but he has as much raw talent as pitcher in the system and clearly has the stuff to put away big league hitters.

Max Fried - Now 2 full seasons removed from his Tommy John surgery, Fried had a rough start to 2017 in Double A but silenced all the doubters once he made his major league debut and looked great in doing so with 26 solid innings. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and absolutely dominated there, so he'll be coming into Spring Training with all the confidence in the world. While my money's on Touki Toussaint, Fried is not far behind for best curveball in the system and his fastball seems to have returned all of it's velocity. Unfortunately he suffered a few hiccups due to blisters last season so hopefully those don't pop up again.

Lucas Sims - Drafted all the way back in the stone ages - 2012 when men were men by God! Anyways Sims is a starter for now but has been pegged by several publications as destined for the bullpen. After 6 seasons as a full time starter though I doubt the Braves ship him out there just yet especially after he showed flashes last year in the bigs but then again with the guys listed before him and Soroka, Allard, Wright and a whole bunch more on the way it would not surprise me if he didn't head out to left field.


OK I was going to blaze through this tonight but it's midnight so I will make this a 3 parter instead with Position players tomorrow and bullpen whenever the hell I feel like it.



PS- Aaron Blair and Matt Wisler also still exist...

Meet the 2016 Braves

I'm a day late, there's 161 games left though so let's meet this year's Braves. 

Wait, I'm getting word in my ear 4 of the 5 guys on this 2016 card are gone? Ok let's see some guys still on the team. 

Freddie Freeman is far and away the best player on the Braves and he may not even make the All Star team. He homered yesterday though so maybe he'll have a good season like his 2013 year: .319/.396/.501, 23 HR, 121 RBI

Here's the rest of the starting infield. Let's hope good things happen here.

Adonis is playing third for now, he's got some power - 10 homers in 200 at bats last year. He hit one yesterday so we'll see.

Starting outfielders. This might work if Olivera hits, Inciarte figures out lefties and Markakis regains some power. That's alot of its. I think Markakis gets traded if he shows any value to make room for Mallex Smith. 

The Braves cut Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and Emilio Bonifacio eating $30 million total. These are the guys  they're rolling with to start the year. Obviously Francoeur offers the feel good story potential.  Stubbs hasn't hit in a couple years but he's a RH bat that plays CF so here we are.

Kelly Johnson will play everywhere but SS, center and catcher. Flowers is the back up catcher and apparently a good pitch framer.

Rounding out the bench is Georgia boy Gordon Beckham.

Julio the ace? We'll see, looked good yesterday despite the usual long balls.

The rest of the rotation. I'm excited to see Wisler progress, Norris I have no expectations for (read bad) and Perez looks more like a reliever to me. The Braves don't need a fifth starter until the 12th so they'll be carrying an extra bullpen arm until then. 

Speaking of which here they are. John Gant makes the jump from AA to be the long man. Winkler looked fantastic in his debut yesterday throwing 11 pitches, 10 of them strikes, striking out the side. Ramirez throws really hard, that's about all I know about him. 

The only lefty on the club.  EOF returns, he was awful last year and the year before. 

Alexi Ogando had a good spring to make the club. 

Vizcaino is the best pitcher here and Fredi Gonzalez has said they will use him in high leverage situations and did so yesterday. Johnson and Grilli are the wily vets in the pen.

26th man Chachin will take somebody's spot once a 5th starter is needed. 

Once Folty is healthy he should enter the rotation as well. 

Aaron Blair could make it up this year to start as well. Jenkins and Mallex will almost definitely debut as well. Hopefully Newcomb and Ruiz bust out but we'll see, they're both starting in AA and AAA respectively.

Thanks for reading, Go Lightning!

It's Opening Day Y'all! - Crappy Prediction Time

It's here guys, Opening Day is today with three games being played including a World Series rematch. What better time to share my terrible predictions with you all. I did my fantasy draft last Sunday taking the above Josh Donaldson with my first pick at fifth overall and with the Braves looking like they might lose 100 games this year I may be paying more attention to my fake team and the Braves minor league affiliates by the All-Star Break. Speaking of which has anyone ever subscribed to MILB.TV wondering if it's worth it to catch guys like Dansby Swanson and Max Fried down on the farm. Anyways enough babbling let's get to the picks....

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West:  Giants
Wildcard 1: Nats
Wildcard 2: Pirates
Best Record: Cubs

Sorry Dodgers and Cardinals fans these here bubblegum predictions don't see you in the playoffs!

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Astros
Wildcard 1: Rays
Wildcard 2: Rangers
Best Record: Astros

Same for you Yankees and Royals fans. Leaving the defending champs out is probably not a wise move but I like the White Sox chances.

I'm not gonna pick every round but I think the Mets will repeat as NL champs and face off against the equally young Astros in the World Series.

With the Astros coming out on top. Quick tell me how wrong I am NOW!

NL MVP - Paul Goldschmidt

AL MVP - Mike Trout (duh)

NL Cy Young -  Gerrit Cole

AL Cy Young - Chris Sale

NL RoY - Seager

AL RoY - Buxton

I left the Blue Jays who many are picking to win the whole thing completely out as well as the evil Cardinals. All that really matters though is that baseball is back and I have something to look forward to when I get off work every night again!